The U.S. elections have been, as ever, an issue in our country and the world. The message of hope and change has brought Democratic candidate, in addition to facing one of the most attractive candidates for the Republican Party has, generate a set of conclusions, only 3 weeks before the election.
First, this election means the end of Reaganism or Republican doctrine based on the glorification of "American values." Both candidates are freaks in their games. Obama represents a different twist to the traditional heads Democrats, who since Howard Dean who did not have another alternative. On the Republican side, McCain is no traditionalist. The veteran is making an analogy to our situation in Chile, a conservative maverick. Not only faced hard with Bush on issues like torura prisoners of war and the health system, but has worked in various bipartisan initiatives. McCain has not been a hard conservative, his views on abortion or gay marriage have not been sharp, at least until the election began.
Republican, with the experience of having lost the last primary against Bush, knows that to reach the hearts of the electorate, should resign their positions more progressive and has had a speech slip attached to the conservative line. Deserves special mention your choice of Vice President, summoning an unknown Sarah Palin, whose greatest merit is to represent, in the flesh values \u200b\u200bof the "deep America."
the other hand, Obama represents a outsider within his party. Is a candidate raised by the foundation and who has dared to face the epitome of Democratic establishment: the Clintons. It has already achieved the other party's powerful family, the Kennedys, the support from the outset. Obama is the embodiment of the American dream, the country of freedoms. The candidate does not tire of repeating that in any other country in the world could be a candidate for president. And not without reason, he is the son of a white woman from Texas and a Nigerian middle class, born and raised in Hawaii, won Grammy and studied at one of the best universities in the world. Not only that, he devoted his life to service and is today the only black U.S. senator
In conclusion, this is an unusual choice, which implicitly recognizes the failure of the Bush doctrine, not only on domestic issues but foreign policy. The way U.S. relates to the world will undergo changes, whatever the outcome of the election.
Second, beyond each other's stories, an interesting fact to analyze the voting behavior that has occurred in recent U.S. elections. The north country has a system of elcción complex where the most important is not the national majority, but the number of Electoral Votes (EV) obtained by each candidate. Thus, establishing a mechanism through which each state represents a particular númerdo votes and where the candidate receiving a majority of the state takes them all. Never mind winning by one vote or a thousand, all the votes that count are mine. Al Gore suffered firsthand the complexity of the system, losing to Bush in an election where you had the vote of a majority of Americans. (Below is an excellent video that explains how the system)
The latest polls give an edge between 5 and 8 points to Obama nationally, but that does not says nothing if not analyze the EV count. To analyze this, we make three distinctions: the safe states (solid ), states that lean ( leaning ) and uncertain states ( toss up). If the election were held today, and predicted by the polls continues, Obama should win by a margin of 364 to 174, whereas 270 are required to win. Considering that polls tend to tighten as the closer the elections, we would expect a smaller difference.
The key to this election is to secure those states that favored the party in 2004 and try to take any opponent. If we see it from that perspective, McCain not only states that Bush said he Gando in 2004 (as the disputed Florida now appears to be undecided), but has definitely lost states such as Colorado. Obama, moreover, not only assured the states that Kerry won, but it has gradually wresting electoral votes to the Republicans.
Given this scenario, it seems impossible that McCain succeeded in reversing the momentum Obama living, but you still have some alternatives. The first, and missed and was hung on the figure of the Democratic and try to confuse the electorate to show as well. With this, any consideration when voting would be over welcomed by the staff for ideas or projects (basically the same argument that took Bachelet 2005). The other option is to attack the opponent. Through a series of indirect ways - religious, interest, fans or other - the Republican has sown doubts about the ties Obama to terrorist groups, replicating the phenomenon to the point that the hatred becomes extreme. Republican already lived in person a few weeks ago, when he had to appease some of his supporters, who showed a deep hatred for Obama. Clearly this strategy is not proving as good as they would like a more conservative, but is likely to undermine a little take advantage of them so far. We
However, in my opinion, Obama will win, more or less slack on 4 November. Not only by a personal conviction of the qualities of the candidate, but for the budding stage and electoral projections. To the extent that nothing happens unique - style 11 / M that ousted Aznar's English government - the trend should be maintained and, therefore, would have the first black president in U.S. history
First, this election means the end of Reaganism or Republican doctrine based on the glorification of "American values." Both candidates are freaks in their games. Obama represents a different twist to the traditional heads Democrats, who since Howard Dean who did not have another alternative. On the Republican side, McCain is no traditionalist. The veteran is making an analogy to our situation in Chile, a conservative maverick. Not only faced hard with Bush on issues like torura prisoners of war and the health system, but has worked in various bipartisan initiatives. McCain has not been a hard conservative, his views on abortion or gay marriage have not been sharp, at least until the election began.
Republican, with the experience of having lost the last primary against Bush, knows that to reach the hearts of the electorate, should resign their positions more progressive and has had a speech slip attached to the conservative line. Deserves special mention your choice of Vice President, summoning an unknown Sarah Palin, whose greatest merit is to represent, in the flesh values \u200b\u200bof the "deep America."
the other hand, Obama represents a outsider within his party. Is a candidate raised by the foundation and who has dared to face the epitome of Democratic establishment: the Clintons. It has already achieved the other party's powerful family, the Kennedys, the support from the outset. Obama is the embodiment of the American dream, the country of freedoms. The candidate does not tire of repeating that in any other country in the world could be a candidate for president. And not without reason, he is the son of a white woman from Texas and a Nigerian middle class, born and raised in Hawaii, won Grammy and studied at one of the best universities in the world. Not only that, he devoted his life to service and is today the only black U.S. senator
In conclusion, this is an unusual choice, which implicitly recognizes the failure of the Bush doctrine, not only on domestic issues but foreign policy. The way U.S. relates to the world will undergo changes, whatever the outcome of the election.
Second, beyond each other's stories, an interesting fact to analyze the voting behavior that has occurred in recent U.S. elections. The north country has a system of elcción complex where the most important is not the national majority, but the number of Electoral Votes (EV) obtained by each candidate. Thus, establishing a mechanism through which each state represents a particular númerdo votes and where the candidate receiving a majority of the state takes them all. Never mind winning by one vote or a thousand, all the votes that count are mine. Al Gore suffered firsthand the complexity of the system, losing to Bush in an election where you had the vote of a majority of Americans. (Below is an excellent video that explains how the system)
The latest polls give an edge between 5 and 8 points to Obama nationally, but that does not says nothing if not analyze the EV count. To analyze this, we make three distinctions: the safe states (solid ), states that lean ( leaning ) and uncertain states ( toss up). If the election were held today, and predicted by the polls continues, Obama should win by a margin of 364 to 174, whereas 270 are required to win. Considering that polls tend to tighten as the closer the elections, we would expect a smaller difference.
The key to this election is to secure those states that favored the party in 2004 and try to take any opponent. If we see it from that perspective, McCain not only states that Bush said he Gando in 2004 (as the disputed Florida now appears to be undecided), but has definitely lost states such as Colorado. Obama, moreover, not only assured the states that Kerry won, but it has gradually wresting electoral votes to the Republicans.
Given this scenario, it seems impossible that McCain succeeded in reversing the momentum Obama living, but you still have some alternatives. The first, and missed and was hung on the figure of the Democratic and try to confuse the electorate to show as well. With this, any consideration when voting would be over welcomed by the staff for ideas or projects (basically the same argument that took Bachelet 2005). The other option is to attack the opponent. Through a series of indirect ways - religious, interest, fans or other - the Republican has sown doubts about the ties Obama to terrorist groups, replicating the phenomenon to the point that the hatred becomes extreme. Republican already lived in person a few weeks ago, when he had to appease some of his supporters, who showed a deep hatred for Obama. Clearly this strategy is not proving as good as they would like a more conservative, but is likely to undermine a little take advantage of them so far. We
However, in my opinion, Obama will win, more or less slack on 4 November. Not only by a personal conviction of the qualities of the candidate, but for the budding stage and electoral projections. To the extent that nothing happens unique - style 11 / M that ousted Aznar's English government - the trend should be maintained and, therefore, would have the first black president in U.S. history
* Video that explains how the American electoral system.
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